by Authors also acknowledge tariffs have had an impact on costs and retail prices to consumers
WASHINGTON — Ongoing tariffs are expected to cause a decline in import volume at major ports around the U.S. during the first half based on the Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
As the nation awaits a Supreme Court decision on the legality of tariffs, businesses and consumers alike have continued to see increased costs and prices resulting from tariffs, the authors said.
“With tariffs still a matter of debate in the courts and in Congress, their effect on imports is being clearly seen,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy. “The situation underscores the need for clear and predictable trade policies that support supply chain certainty and reliability, business planning and consumer affordability. Tariffs are a tax on U.S. businesses that is ultimately paid by consumers through higher prices.”
While the Supreme Court could strike down tariffs, the NRF said that concerns remain over the president’s authority to impose tariffs through other measures, “creating further challenges and uncertainty.”
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker include Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast; and Houston on the Gulf Coast.
While the NRF said that the ports of Houston and Charleston have not yet reported data for December, other U.S. ports handled 1.99 million TEUs, down 6.5% from December 2024 and 1.7% from November. It noted that imports for the full year in 2025 totaled 25.4 million TEUs, down .4% from 25.5 million in 2024.
Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said tariffs have brought “a global change in trade relations” that is affecting import volumes.
“The continuing use of tariffs against friend and foe alike combined with the uncertainty of when or if they will be implemented makes trade forecasting very difficult,” Hackett said, also noting that last year’s government shutdown is still making up-to-date government data difficult to come by. “Following essentially flat container import volumes in 2025 compared with 2024, we expect a decline during the first half of 2026 and likely longer.”
Officials also said that ports have not yet reported numbers for January, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.11 million TEU. This would be down 5.2% year over year, but up from December, or before Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia. The month of February is forecast at 1.97 million TEU, down 3.1% year over year; March at 1.89 million TEU, down 12%; April at 2.05 million TEU, down 7.1%; May at 2.13 million TEU, up 9.3%; and June at 2.12 million TEU, up 8%.
This would bring imports for the first half of 2026 to 12.27 million TEU, down 2% from 12.53 million TEU during the same period in 2025. The report said the May and June results show a year-over-year increase largely because of the sharp drop-off in imports during those months last year after tariffs were first announced in April 2025.
