by I just happened upon a recently released report based on a March 2023 analysis of Freddie Mac Loan Product Advisor data that I think home furnishings retailers will find interesting.
The report chronicles both the pace of domestic migration of homebuyers leaving their current homes during the past year as well as identifying the metro areas with the largest 12-month growth period.
To summarize the research, compiled by Kristine Yao, macro and housing economics director at Freddie Mac, while the pace of domestic migration has decreased during the last year, homebuyers are still actively moving out of high-cost, bustling metros in favor of more affordable areas.
Overall, the number of migrating homebuyers, on a rolling 12-month period, more than tripled between March 2020 and March 2022. And though the pace of migration has slowed in the past 12 months, net migration remains elevated compared to the 12-month period ending March 2021.
Specifically, homebuyers are relocating to places including Lakeland-Winterhaven, Florida; Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, California; Port St. Lucie, Tampa and Daytona Beach, Florida; and Sugarland and Dallas, Texas.
Metro areas with the largest net migration gains
| Rank | Metro Area | 12-Month Net Migration (as of March 2023) | % Change vs. April 2021-March 2022 | Previous Rank |
| 1 | Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, California | 7,300 | -27% | 1 |
| 2 | Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, Texas | 3,800 | -5% | 2 |
| 3 | Lakeland-Winter Haven, Florida | 2,900 | 6% | 10 |
| 4 | Port St. Lucie, Florida | 2,800 | -15% | 6 |
| 5 | North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, Florida | 2,500 | -27% | 5 |
| 6 | Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, North Carolina | 2,400 | -24% | 7 |
| 7 | Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, Florida | 2,400 | -17% | 9 |
| 8 | Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Florida | 2,200 | -43% | 3 |
| 9 | Jacksonville, Florida | 2,100 | -5% | 13 |
| 10 | Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas | 1,800 | -49% | 4 |
While I realize that this information would be valuable to home furnishings retailers, what really got my attention was the section of the report that identifies the metro areas being vacated by homebuyers.
Here, the report states that, for the nation’s metro areas with the greatest negative net migration over the past 12 months, cumulative net migration was higher than it was between April 2020 and March 2021 except for three areas: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, California; San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, California; and Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, Illinois, Indiana and Wisconsin.
Metro areas with the largest net migration losses
| Rank | Metro Area | 12-Month Net Migration (as of March 2023) | % Change vs. April 2021-March 2022 | Previous Rank |
| 1 | New York-Newark-Jersey City, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania | (24,100) | -16% | 1 |
| 2 | Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, California | (21,200) | -26% | 2 |
| 3 | Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, D.C., Virginia, Maryland, West Virginia | (9,900) | -6% | 4 |
| 4 | San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, California | (9,500) | -34% | 3 |
| 5 | Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Massachusetts, New Hampshire | (7,200) | -13% | 6 |
| 6 | Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Washington | (6,300) | -18% | 7 |
| 7 | San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, California | (5,900) | -36% | 5 |
| 8 | Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, Florida | (5,300) | -52% | 11 |
| 9 | San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, California | (4,100) | -18% | 9 |
| 10 | Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin | (3,700) | -33% | 8 |
The report concludes that, “The pandemic intensified existing homebuyer migration patterns and shows a population in pursuit of affordable housing. The highest homebuyer net migration losses have occurred in high-cost, inelastic markets located in coastal areas.“
As mortgage rates continue to rise, it will be interesting to keep up with these housing shifts, especially for home furnishings retailers in the metro areas mentioned.
