by Various factors went into the research, including income, job growth and mortgage payment versus rent ratio in markets with a population of more than 250,000
WASHINGTON — The National Association of Realtors has identified the Top 10 metro areas for homebuying in the U.S. for the year ahead, based on factors ranging from the share of young households to job and income growth.
The 10 top markets in alphabetical order are:
+ Charleston, South Carolina
+ Charlotte, North Carolina – northern South Carolina region
+ Columbus, Ohio
+ Indianapolis, Indiana
+ Jacksonville, Florida
+ Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota-Wisconsin
+ Raleigh, North Carolina
+ Richmond, Virginia
+ Salt Lake City, Utah
+ Spokane, Washington
Along with the factors cited above, the report ranks these areas based on domestic migration as a share of the population, the share of home sales with price reductions, and lower interest rates impacting the share of buyers’ ability to afford a home. Other factors included listings-to-income alignment score (and YoY Change), mortgage payment versus rent ratio, the change in single-family building permits (from August 2024 through this past August) and the change in mortgage originations in these markets.
In each case, the metro areas were compared with the national averages in each category. The NAR said the Top 10 housing hot spots include markets with populations above 250,000 that outperform the average market in the U.S. on at least five of 10 economic, demographic and housing indicators. The report said they also “demonstrate meaningful 2026 opportunities for homebuyers and agents who are Realtors.”
“Lower mortgage rates and larger inventory will attract buyers back to the market in 2026,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “The Top 10 housing hot spots for 2026 have a combination of strong demand potential, projected improvements in affordability, and, most critically, a housing stock that matches the budgets of the buyers who are returning to the market.”
The share of millennial households was a key indicator of the strength of each market. The U.S. average in this area is 33%, for example, and the share of millennials in each of the Top 10 metros exceeded this figure, ranging from 34.2% for Jacksonville, Florida, to 40.9% in Salt Lake City, Utah.
Job growth was another key factor, with the national average at .6% and the metros ranging from .7% for Jacksonville, Florida, to 3.2% for Charleston, South Carolina. Only Spokane, Washington, was in negative territory of the metro areas surveyed, down .3%.
Nationwide, the change in household income averaged 5%, and here most metro areas in the Top 10 were above this level, ranging from Charlotte, North Carolina, at 5.8% to Spokane, Washington, at 15.8%. Only Richmond, Virginia, (-1%), Indianapolis, Indiana, (-2.9%) and Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota, (-3%) fell below the national average.
While only covering a small number of the estimated 393 MSAs in the U.S., these regions offer a glimpse at where the housing market is headed in the year ahead and what the opportunities are for buyers in these and other markets.
“After several years of constrained affordability, historically low inventory and a locked-in homeowner population, the 2026 housing market is finally entering a new phase with more opportunities for buyers,” the report said. “A meaningful decline in mortgage rates, modest but broad improvements in for-sale inventory, and a shifting alignment between local incomes and listed home prices are expected to help many buyers and sellers in the coming year.”
It added that across the U.S. many households — that were priced out of the market because of higher interest rates between 2023 and 2025 — “now find themselves closer to homeownership again.”
“A drop in rates from 7% to 6% can expand the pool of qualified buyers by 5.5 million households across the country, including 1.6 million renters, who are potential first-time buyers,” the report said. “Yet affordability alone is not enough. 2024 and 2025 showed us that easing mortgage rates do not automatically translate into stronger sales unless the homes that come on the market actually match what local buyers can afford.”
Thus, it noted that “opportunity markets are markets where inventory is gradually returning, prices are better aligned with what local incomes can support, and lower rates meaningfully expand the qualified buyer pool.”
Note that many communities outside these key housing markets also offer opportunity for homebuyers. While they may be a longer commute to jobs in major cities, they also likely offer lower tax rates and more affordably priced properties, whether they are new construction or existing homes. For many young families, they also offer other benefits such as less traffic, good schools and a greater sense of community that small-town living offers.
For furniture retailers, we believe this spells opportunity in the year ahead in these and many other communities, particularly as interest rates continue to drop. Not only does this make housing more affordable, it also allows for a larger percentage of incomes to be spent on things like furniture and home décor.
Thus, it continues to make sense to pay attention to what’s happening in your backyard and to be prepared for the potential onslaught of consumers needing new furniture.
What is the housing market like in your area? And how are you preparing to serve the in-migration of consumers looking to spend money in your store? Feel free to share any thoughts or comments with Tom Russell at tom@homenewsnow.com or Home News Now Retail Editor Kathryn Greene at kathryn@homenewsnow.com.
